Human "errors" with risk estimation and chance

Economists and statisticians are always telling us that humans fundamentally misjudge risk, and do not follow optimal strategies in all manner of situations.  I would say that we more likely following strategies that are optimized for evolutionary survival in the sort of environments which animals must move around in.  People who haven't taken a course in probability theory seem to assume that every example of chance pulls from sort of pool - tossing a coin uses up some pool of possible "heads" results, so that after a run, there must not be any "heads" left in the pool, and we must start getting "tails."  The sort of probability which people intuitively model functions much more like a deck of cards than a coin toss or a roll of the dice.  One might wonder why this might be, imagining oneself as some sort of animal, a small monkey for instance, since this would be where we might make evolutionary contact with our methods of estimating risk.  A monkey is in a tree, looking for ripe fruit.  When it finds a piece that is very nice, it has drawn a card from the ripe fruit deck.  Pretty soon, there are no cards left in the ripe fruit deck, and only unripe fruit remains.  The monkey could climb to the next tree, but it knows there might be pythons there.  There are no pythons in this tree, while in the next tree, there is a deck of python cards, with no clear knowledge of what it contains.  If you draw a python card, then more than likely, you are dead.  If you escape, then you have turned over the python card, and can avoid it.  The pool of fatal risk has been reduced by some amount, at least in the near term.  Everything the monkey is doing stays in fixed pools, in some limited interval at least, with the risk of error being quite possibly fatal.  This is the sort of risk evolution has designed us to process and estimate I would say.  Pools are closed, with each draw reducing the pool.  Cost of risk is very high.  Eventually, one must seek new resources, but risk should always be minimized.  The monkey is playing a card game rather than rolling dice.  But this game with predators will look different than the game with one's own species,